A hurricane is a large tropical storm involving high winds, heavy rains, large potential for damage and loss of life. A hurricane is, in the large, somewhat predictable; its path can be guessed at based on wind and topographical knowledge. A hurricane is not predictable over long periods or at small scales; the turbulence involved precludes accurate forecasting in either case.

The equations for weather prediction, even assuming they are perfectly correct, are not soluble. They are inherently unstable, chaotic; see “Chaos Theory” for more on this. Even if we had incredibly good data at the one-foot level from the bottom of the ocean to the top of the atmosphere, and all the computing power and time we needed, we could still not predict simple weather much farther out than a week, more or less. The equations just aren’t stable; having data even at the one foot level isn’t tight enough to prevent multiple outcomes from being equally possible while being very different from each other.

However, very large disturbances can be predicted somewhat, as noted above.

I will now venture to predict the outcome of the current world crises. I claim no special insight; the disturbances are so large that the general outline of the upcoming damage can be guessed at. You may want to install a storm cellar by the end of this post.

Global warming will continue. Global famine will result. Global water shortages and global floods will coexist. We are already seeing some evidence of all of these predictions coming true.

Global inequality will increase. Global unrest will increase. Global demonstrations will, eventually, all succeed or be put down with gunfire. The elite, who control the police/army, have little choice but to protect their interests in this manner. Expect unpleasant outcomes.

A hurricane grows when it passes over water, particularly warm water. Moist air generates heat which generates lift which creates an in-draft which brings in more moist air. The hurricane scavenges its surroundings into itself. It grows until denied new sources of energy.

Demonstrations grow and grow ugly when demonstrators realize they have little to lose, and are rapidly losing that. An uprising grows as it pulls in more disaffected individuals and subjects them to its own mob logic. Insurrections scavenge everything available until cut off by success or violence.

Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Greece: political uprisings.

Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Iceland: financial uprisings.

USA, Canada, and others: the beginnings of social uprisings.

This is a hurricane. It is worldwide. The social unrest will be fuelled at catastrophic levels when global warming and famine cut into these countries. Right now it is “just” a matter of money, freedom, social justice. When it is also a matter of food and water, watch out.

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