P < .05 means what??

I’ll add some stuff from Nature on this later, maybe.

Probability and experiments are often misunderstood.

Here is a fun example we should all read, and laugh at, and then laugh at ourselves.

Trying 20 types of candies, one in 20 comes up with a positive result. For that one, P<.05.

Since it is one of twenty, that shouldn’t be seen as ‘proof’ but the P value will be seen as such.

The Nature article insists that the pre-experiment known possibilities, including for false positives, means that many of our ‘accepted’ results are, er, well, not that acceptable.

What’s in a Name?

I will give you the names of four organizations. Then I’ll make snarky comments about them.

  • Canada Standards Association
  • Britain First
  • Black Lives Matter
  • Special Investigations Unit

CSA is a required approval for appliances in Canada. It was started in a garage, but because of its name, became the standard.

Britain First is a radical group. Here is a quote from Wikipedia:

Britain First campaigns primarily against multiculturalism and what it sees as the Islamisation of the United Kingdom, and advocates the preservation of traditional British culture. It attracted attention by taking direct action such as its “Christian patrols” and “invasions” of British mosques. It has been noted for its online activism.

They are, apparently, not nice people. However the name makes them sound useful, even patriotic.

Black Lives Matter gained fame by halting the Gay Pride parade in Toronto, Canada. They succeeded in getting the parade to agree NOT to allow police officers to participate in the parade in uniform. It appears that black lives matter a lot more than gay ones. That the police had been invited to participate in this parade meant nothing to BLM.

Special Investigations Unit is the branch of the municipal police tha investigates incidents in which a police officer shoots somebody. Or is suspected of planting evidence. I’m sure you get the picture. They are supposed to be the watchdogs protecting the public from overzealous police actions. Unfortunately, they are mostly ex police officers. Their investigations often are ‘special.’

What’s my point, you ask? In each of the above cases you might be subtly or seriously misled as to the group’s real purpose because of its official (often self-selected) name.

We just witnessed a major piece of legislation in the USA which is touted as Tax Reform. One senator said it really is ‘government for sale.’ It includes these provisions (among others):

  • tax cuts for the rich
  • territorial view of corporation taxes, allowing outside earnings to stay outside of US tax
  • reduction in business taxes overall
  • reduction on the home mortgage interest tax break, with a ceiling on mortgage size
  • permission of oil extraction in previously protected wildlife areas
  • removing of fines for not having health insurance
  • increase in the estate tax loophole

and there is more. This is ‘tax reform.’ Trump can call it that, but it’s a big gift to the rich and rich corporations, and an omnibus bill with other pieces stuffed in.

 

Trump Peace

Donald Trump, POTUS, has a strange way of settling conflicts.

To defuse the tension with North Korea, he threatens fire and brimstone. He insults ‘little rocket man.’ He has been accused of driving DPRK to nuclear ICBMs.

I think this is correct.

To make Israel happy, the Potus has said the US Embassy will move from Tel Aviv to Palestine. Apparently it has been law in the USA to move the embassy, and every six months the POTUS keeps it from going ahead because either the building or the security is not there. This is the first time any POTUS has decided to let the move happen.

interestingly, Mr. Netanyahu lauded this latest development as a major step forward to peace.This is the same Netanyahu who keeps building illegal settlements, including in East Palestine.

Analysts have said that this is meant to justify, after the anticipated demonstrations incited into riots, of further clamp down on Palestinians. Maybe their tax revenue, water supply, and electricity will be reduced as punishment. Or maybe we’ll see another devastating bombing raid on civilians in Palestine. In short, the more powerful force is taunting the weaker one hoping to enforce further weakening, by checkpoints, curfews, outages.

You may remember that the international deal with Iran over nuclear enrichment was enacted in the USA with a clause that the POTUS had to certify (every six months) that the conditions were being met. The relevant inspectors said they were. The POTUS refused to certify, on some logic that ‘the spirit’ wasn’t being kept when the letter of the agreement obviously is.

Iran may decide to restart, clandestinely, its nuclear program. They already have a decent missile program.

One analyst of US policy with regard to agreements was to compare them to a real estate deal. If it works out for U, OK. If it doesn’t, walk away. Bankruptcy if necessary. Put it into a separate corporation ahead of time. Unfortunately one can only bankrupt the US’s credibility / integrity once or at most twice. Then everyone who can think knows not to deal with such an unreliable partner.

So, thanks to the Trump Peace effort, we can expect at least some of these dire predictions to come true:

  • North Korea gets nuclear-tipped ICBMs and proves that they work.
  • Palestine revolts, aided by all Arab nations (possibly excepting Saudi Arabia, which has a not-so-secret relationship with Israel.)
  • Iran makes a decision.

To quote Albert Einstein: I don’t know what weapons World War Three will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

So, now for the dumb questions:

Is all this a distraction from growing inequality, bigotry, divisiveness at home? Or just from so many inappropriately behaving powerful men being outed?

Has peace been Trumped?

North Korea: some truth, for once

You may be wondering what’s going on between North Korea and the rest of the world, particularly the USA.

Here you can read a CRS report on this. I won’t give any quotes. If you’re interested in this topic, you can read it for yourself. (CRS = Congressional Research Service.)

In this report is a comment that the USA may have (deliberately?) messed up one agreement by attacking a bank that North Korea used. Since almost all banks in Macau had DPRK accounts in them, clearly the USA went after a big one to stampede all the others. You can find this here.

There is no solution. North Korea will continue to develop nuclear warheads and ICBM delivery vehicles. In an earlier round of food sanctions it is estimated that 5-10% of the population died of malnutrition. (That’s a euphemism for starvation.) Do you think the USA has more leverage than starvation?

This is posted under ‘Observation’ because there is no ‘activist’ content here, eh?

Guilty as Discharged: how Trump neutralizes Fact

Michael Flynn has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI.

This could beĀ  (wink, wink; nudge, nudge) part of a plea deal.

This is a very large threat to the POTUS. If you’re interested in bafflegab, here is some from the White House: (Emphasis mine, as always)

Donald Trump has responded to a guilty plea by his former national security adviser Michael Flynn, saying Mr Flynn’s actions as a member of his transition team “were lawful”.

So he pled guilty just for fun.

The deal, for a lesser charge than he might have faced, prompted speculation that he has incriminating evidence.

Imagine my surprise.

Several US news organisations report the very senior official now under the spotlight is Jared Kushner – Mr Trump’s adviser and son-in-law.

So sorry. We were all hoping it was the Donald.

What is usually a Dumb Question here is instead an Activism request:

Can you do anything about this regime? To make it better, more honest, safer, egalitarian? Will you find a way to do something? Please?

Corruption, eh?

Why so much in the US, compared to the UK?

Here you will find the following statements:

A Republican congressman allegedly used a tax-payer funded account to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit with his former spokeswoman, US media report.

It is annoying that a lawmaker can have his legal body pay for his transgressions. However, in the USA and Canada, companies regularly pay for their top management’s transgressions, amounts trivial to the corporation, and never passed on to the legal losers.

Should that bother you?

Convergence: boon or bane?

Convergence is, in some cases, a good idea. You can be pretty sure that a standard light bulb from Canadian Tire or Wal-Mart will fit your socket and work correctly.

However, if you own a tumble drier, convergence may have put you in this list:

  • Whirlpool, who owns
  • HotPoint, and
  • Indesit, and
  • Creada, and
  • Swan, and
  • Proline.

You can check me on this at this website.All of these driers are failing. That’s because Whirlpool bought them all out and sold their own c..p under these other brands.

How about dishwasher fires? You might want to check out this list:

  • Whirlpool, who owns
  • Kitchen Aid, and
  • Whirlpool, and
  • Sears Kenmore, and
  • Maytag

Apparently these beauties are subject to dishwasher fires. And yes, they are all really made by one company and sold under these (and probably other) brands.

Well, you say, I could maybe die in a dryer fire and maybe even less likely in a dishwasher fire.

Well, consider automobile airbags. Takata airbags to be more precise.

Here you will find one of very many pages on this. I’ll content myself with a few limited quotes. Emphasis mine, as always.

In total, 15 automakers have recalled nearly 16.4 million vehicles in the United States since last week stemming from Takata’s decision in May to declare another 35 million to 40 million inflators defective by 2019.

And, that’s only in the USA and it’s only what we now know. Airbags are a commodity, like 120 volt 60 cycle light bulbs.
Convergence means, if one fails, they all are liable to failure.

Convergence means, interchangeability. This is good when you need a flashlight battery, home appliance, car tire valve.

Now for the activism question:

should not highly convergently-used technology be subject to much tighter testing and insurance than, say, a hot-dog bought on St. George street? I think that’s a bad example, eh?